Friday, April 24, 2009

Intraday market action leading up to FOMC (Fed) Meetings


You know the drill. We will look at the last several FOMC meetings, and the days that preceded it to gain a sense of what market behavior to expect for the week of April 27. There is a Fed meeting on Wednesday, April 29.

The attached graph consists of a series of subplot. In each subplot we show the price of SPY for all the days up to and including FED day. So, the very last color (yellow) is the day of the Fed meeting. The only exception is the bottom right subplot in which I use the current day (Friday, April 25th) in order to give a sense of what the market has been like in the period leading up to now.

One notable thing is how many fakeouts (mostly down, then up) there are on the day of the announcement, and the overall high volatility of the days preceding it. This is always talked about by traders, and it is nice to observe directly in the data.